Second spot in rankings at stake in Tri Nations opener

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With only seven weeks until Rugby World Cup 2011 kicks off in New Zealand, the annual battle of the southern giants in the Tri Nations throws a conundrum to Graham Henry, Robbie Deans and Peter de Villiers in can you win both or should you sacrifice one in the quest for the Webb Ellis Cup?

Four years ago South Africa coach Jake White left many of his top players behind when they headed to Australia and New Zealand, the fact they finished bottom of the Tri Nations standings forgotten a few months later when they won a second World Cup title.

De Villiers has employed the same approach with more than 20 leading Springboks ruled out of the trips to Sydney and Wellington by injury and he will be hoping to replicate the class of 2007’s success come the World Cup.

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South Africa, though, surrendered their Tri Nations title with a whimper in 2010 after winning just one of their six matches, and just like New Zealand and Australia they will not want to go into Rugby World Cup 2011 on the back of a disappointing campaign.

“If you remember in 2007, South Africa only won one of their four games and on the away leg they sent a so-called B team and kept their top 15-20 players in Cape Town training hard,” former Australia coach Eddie Jones told Total Rugby.

“Everyone wants to win the Tri Nations, but you also want to win the World Cup, which is probably more important this year, so it’s a matter of just getting the balances right.

“I think the first thing they’ll (South Africa) be trying to get right is their conditioning programme. I think with an older team they need to be fit, but they need to be fresh for the World Cup and I think you might find that South Africa have a very selective selection policy for the Tri Nations.

“Guys like Victor Matfield have played nearly every minute of every game for the Bulls and they’ll need to  be nursed through the Tri nations so they can play seven weeks in a row at the World Cup.”

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South Africa will kick-off the Tri Nations at ANZ Stadium against an Australian side still reeling from their shock 32-23 loss to Samoa at the same venue last Sunday, a defeat which saw the Wallabies surrender their second spot in the IRB World Rankings to the Springboks.

A win of any margin will see the Wallabies regain the second spot they had held since November, but a defeat could see them lose touch with South Africa and also slip to nearly 10 points behind the number one ranked side New Zealand.

South Africa cannot improve on second spot, but they could slash New Zealand’s advantage at the top by 1.8 points to 4.95 ahead of their meeting in Wellington next weekend. In the same vein, neither South Africa nor Australia can slip from third with Ireland, the leading northern hemisphere nation in the IRB World Rankings, nearly three points adrift of the Wallabies in fourth.

New Zealand are also in action this weekend, against Fiji at Carisbrook in a Test under the banner of For Canterbury, with all profits from the match going towards the Christchurch Earthquake Appeal.

The All Blacks beat Fiji 91-0 when they last met in 2005, but even a victory of that magnitude will not have any impact on their IRB World Ranking as a result of the 13 places and 21.67 rating points that separate the two nations.

Jones: All Blacks to win title

Fiji have slipped four places this month after defeats to Tonga and Japan in the IRB Pacific Nations Cup, but could climb as high as 11th if they can pull off one of the biggest shocks in rugby history and beat the All Blacks.

Whatever happens against Fiji, Jones is predicting more success for the All Blacks come t he end of the Tri Nations.

“Exactly the same order (as last year) and I think the All Blacks will win and win well,” said Jones, a technical advisor to South Africa at France 2007. “I think Australia will perform reasonably well and I think they need to.

“They’ve developed some confidence at the end of last season with a couple of good wins, I think they need to get on the front foot again. They’ve got a young team so they need to have that confidence.

“South Africa won’t be happy coming last, but they want to be at their best for the World Cup and that’s the primary objective for them.”

Zimbabwe to continue rise?


Away from the Tri Nations there is one other match which can impact the IRB World Rankings this weekend with Zimbabwe travelling to Kenya for the final match of the 2011 Victoria Cup, an annual competition also featuring Uganda.

Zimbabwe have already secured the title after Kenya’s loss to Uganda last weekend, but can continue their recent surge up the rankings with victory in Nairobi resulting in a potential gain of four places to a new high of 34th.

That would mean a rise of 13 places in just seven weeks for a country who last played on the Rugby World Cup stage back in 1991, and a victory by more than 15 points would also see Kenya drop a place to 41st.

However, if Kenya can bounce back from the loss to Uganda and win before their home fans then they will climb two or three places, condemning Zimbabwe to a two place fall regardless of the margin of defeat.

The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK time.